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Dr. Konstantin Görgen

Publications and Working Papers

A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave (with J. Bracher, D. Wolffram, J. Deuschel, J.L. Ketterer, A. Ullrich, S. Abbott, M.V. Barbarossa, D. Bertsimas, S. Bhatia, M. Bodych, N.I. Bosse, J.P. Burgard, J. Fuhrmann, S. Funk, K. Gogolewski, Q. Gu, S. Heyder, T. Hotz, Y. Kheifetz, H. Kirsten, T. Krueger, E. Krymova, M.L. Li, J.H. Meinke, K. Niedzielewski, T. Ożański, F. Rakowski, M. Scholz, S. Soni, A. Srivastava, J. Zieliński, D. Zou, T. Gneiting, M. Schienle)  Nature Communications,  2021, Vol. 12, 5173, [Paper], [platform], [pre-registration]

How have German University Tuition Fees Affected Enrollment Rates: Robust Model Selection and Design-based Inference in High-Dimensions (with M. Schienle), revise and resubmit, KIT working paper, [arXiv] (updated 01/2021)

Predicting Value at Risk for Cryptocurrencies With Generalized Random Forests (with J. Meirer and M. Schienle), submitted,  KIT working paper, [arXiv], [SSRN] (updated 06/2022)

Controlling False Discoveries With Robust Knockoffs: Uncovering Macroeconomic Factors of Bond Recovery Rates, (with A. Nazemi and M. Schienle), submitted, KIT working paper, [arXiv] (updated 06/2022)

National and subnational short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland, early 2021 (with J. Bracher, D. Wolffram, J. Deuschel, J.L. Ketterer, M. Schienle and others), revise and resubmit, KIT working paper, [medRxiv] (updated 11/2021)

Predicting Property Prices Using Augmented Crime Data: Extracting Information from Satellite Images with Convolutional Neural Networks (with J. Deuschel and M. Schienle), KIT working paper

Identifying Important Factors of Property Prices Using Satellite Images and Crime Data (with M. Schienle and K. Yu), KIT working paper

Success Factors in Football: An Analysis of the EURO 2020 (with V. Renner, M. Schienle and H. Wäsche), work in progress

On forecasting with distributional random forests (with F. Krüger and S. Lerch), work in progress


[CV] (Stand 06/2022)